Stock Market Struggles: Tariffs, Trade Wars & Uncertainty

3/1/2025

March Looks Rough for Stocks

If you’re hoping for a strong stock market this month, don’t hold your breath. Geopolitical tensions, new tariffs, Fed job cuts, and economic uncertainty are weighing on investor confidence. Businesses are cautious, markets are jittery, and volatility isn’t going anywhere. With so many risks piling up, we don’t expect big stock market returns in March.

Tariffs Are Shaking Things Up

The U.S. is doubling down on tariffs, slapping import taxes on countries like Canada, Mexico, and China. The goal? Protect American industries and bring production back home. The reality? It’s causing market uncertainty and straining relationships with allies. So far, only a 10% tariff on China and Hong Kong is in place, but bigger ones are on the table:

• March 4: Possible 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico over border issues.

• March 12: Potential 25% tariffs on steel & aluminum.

• April 2: Possible auto tariffs.

Investors initially brushed off tariff threats as bluster, but now? Markets are starting to take them seriously.

More Than Just Higher Prices

Tariffs don’t just mean higher costs for businesses—they can slow the whole economy. Some companies pass those costs to consumers, while others absorb them, hurting their profits. Meanwhile, currencies play a role too. The Mexican peso and Chinese yuan are holding steady, while the Canadian dollar has dipped slightly.

Fed Watching Inflation & Jobs

The Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on inflation and economic growth. They’ve hinted at rate cuts later this year, but markets are pricing in a higher chance of a recession. Other central banks—like the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada—are expected to follow suit with rate cuts.

Final Thoughts

With tariffs, job cuts, and uncertainty piling up, the stock market is in for a bumpy ride. Investors are nervous, businesses are holding back, and March isn’t shaping up to be a strong month for stocks. Buckle up—things could get even more unpredictable. 🚀

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